SINGAPORE: Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are expected to decline to around 40 million barrels in November, as Chinese refiners shift toward cheaper spot supplies from other Middle Eastern producers, according to industry sources familiar with the matter.
The expected volume marks a sharp drop from approximately 51 million barrels exported in October, reflecting changing market dynamics between the world’s largest oil exporter and biggest importer.
Earlier this week, Saudi Aramco kept the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia unchanged for November, defying market expectations of a price increase. The decision came shortly after the OPEC+ alliance agreed to a modest production hike.
However, regional crude benchmarks Dubai and Oman are currently trading over $1 per barrel lower than last month’s average, making spot cargoes more appealing for Chinese refiners than crude procured under long-term contracts, sources noted.
The broader Middle East crude supply is also expected to rise, following OPEC+’s decision to boost collective production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November — the same as October’s increment. The group remains cautious amid global oversupply concerns and uncertain demand prospects.
The decline in Saudi shipments to China underscores the intensifying competition among Middle Eastern suppliers for a share in Asia’s key oil market, where price sensitivity and short-term buying opportunities continue to shape trade flows.
By Reuters
